Capacity constraints and cost pressures in New Zealand are a huge problem – “an even higher OCR lane” coming soon

This Morning’s Quarterly NZIER Business Opinion Survey (QSBO) link here
ANZ analysts on the report, this in brief from a longer article:
- Today’s data is more evidence showing that the labor market and inflation are likely even further beyond RBNZ targets than they (or we) thought when the November MPS forecast was released. published. And, the tight labor market is only exacerbating underlying inflationary pressures at this point. The policy prescription is clear: interest rates must rise further in order to tame the once-sleeping inflationary beast.
- But with the economy battling COVID-related supply constraints and disruptions, and declining confidence, the downside risks to economic growth are very real.
The next scheduled meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will take place on February 23. ANZ expects an even more hawkish RBNZ:
- As inflationary pressures continue to beat expectations, this only increases the likelihood that the RBNZ will feel the need to signal and then execute more bulls (i.e. a higher OCR track in the MPS from February).
(ps. OCR is the official exchange rate. The “track” refers to the likely path of rate hikes.)
AUD/NZD weekly chart. If the ANZ view is more widely adopted, I suspect this cross will come under renewed selling pressure: